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This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 265104
  
 
 

 



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D8.2 Spatially explicit assessment of current ecosystem service supply for Europe
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Deliverable D8.2 Spatially explicit assessment of current ecosystem service supply for Europe is now available. This second deliverable of WP8 presents the first results of the spatially explicit assessment of current ecosystem services supply across Europe based on the methodological framework developed in the first deliverable D8.1. Deliverable 8.2 first provides the maps of the ecosystem services modelled within VOLANTE. Identifying the relationships between ecosystem services, and particularly negative associations or “trade-offs”, is essential to foresee the impact of changes in the provision of one ecosystem service on other ecosystem services, or to design an efficient management of multifunctionality.

D8.2 Spatially explicit assessment of current ecosystem service supply for Europe

 
D2.4 Recommendations for relevant policies being developed for EU-27
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Deliverable D2.4 Recommendations for relevant policies being developed for EU-27 is now available. This VOLANTE Deliverable D2.4 gives a reflection on recommendations for European policy development, as far as relevant for land use at the European level. It summarises the main conclusions of the entire Work Package 2 (Policy effects, interaction and institutions) thus far. In the further course of the VOLANTE project these recommendations will still be refined and extended on the basis of stakeholder experiences and analysis of land use transition processes in other Work Packages, so as to optimally inform the VOLANTE Roadmapping Process.

D2.4 Recommendations for relevant policies being developed for EU-27

 
D3.3 Report on drivers of recent land use transitions in Europe
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Deliverable D3.3 Report on drivers of recent land use transitions in Europe is now available. This deliverable (D3.3) documents results on the assessment of drivers of recent changes in the area extent and intensity of major land use classes across Europe. Together with the land use indicators of D3.1, and the hotspot mapping documented in D3.2, the results of D3.3 form the basis for more detailed, pixel-level assessments and the identification and delineation of archetypes of land change in Europe (D3.4). These archetypes are foreseen to help in the interpretation of future scenarios in the pathway analyses (WP11).

D3.3 Report on drivers of recent land use transitions in Europe

 
D4.4 Report on country level analysis
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Deliverable D4.4 Report on country level analysis is now available.

This report presents the most important empirical and methodological results gained from the analysis of the data set which feed into ongoing and future discussions within the VOLANTE project and beyond. These results refer to two major aspects of land use transitions:
1.      Analyses of empirical data concerning land use and land cover change, including changes in area extent and harvest (i.e. yearly flows of carbon) and their socio-economic drivers. These analyses were based on existing and new national case studies, in total comprising a sample of nine European countries, and build upon and further develop the strands of analysis developed in Krausmann et al. (2012). They form the largest part of this report.
2.      Methodological advances relating to assessments of the carbon source or sink function of forests. Based on data of an existing national case study (Austria) as well as on modelling techniques, land-use related carbon flows in forest ecosystems and the ability of global bookkeeping models to reproduce them was analysed. Results from this research have been published recently (Erb et al., 2013) and are discussed in section 4.1.

Deliverable D4.4 Report on country level analysis

 
Bias in the attribution of forest carbon sinks
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A commentary in Nature climate change, based on results from Volante Workpackage WP4, was published recently. In the commentary "Bias in the attribution of forest carbon sink", authors around Karl-Heinz Erb Model- present results from a national long-term analyses for Austria. Results form model and data-based reconstructions of carbon stocks and flows hint to a systematic bias in one of the most widespread models LULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry) induced carbon flows. In consequence, a substantial fraction of the past and present terrestrial carbon sink may be incorrectly attributed to environmental change rather than changes in forest management.

The article is also an example of successful interdisciplinary reserach within the Global Land Project (www.globallandproject.org) community, as it was co-funded by an ERC grant from the Social Sciences and an ERC grant from the Life Sciences.

Erb, Karl-Heinz; Kastner, Thomas; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Houghton, Richard A.; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Olofsson, Pontus; Haberl, Helmut,2013. Bias in the attribution of forest carbon sinks Nature Climate Change, Volume 3, Issue 10, pp. 854-856. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2004

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n10/full/nclimate2004.html

 
D1.4 Synthesis report - Upscaling results and cross-region comparisons
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Deliverable D1.4 Synthesis report - Upscaling results and cross-region comparisons is now available.

The work conducted in WP1 and presented in this report has illustrated the diversity of European landscapes and land use dynamics through case studies in Austria, Denmark, Italy, Greece, Romania and the Netherlands which represent important land use trajectories. WP1 studied the land owners’ decision-making process, to improve our understanding of the drivers of land use change in different rural areas in Europe.Methods and results are described in D1.1, 1.2 and 1.3.This deliverable report supplements previous deliverables by placing the results in a multi-scale European perspective through comparison of results between case studies and with national and EU level.

Multi-scale level perspective on land use intensity

For a national and European perspective, the results of three land use intensity indicators elaborated in WP3 (forest harvest intensity, cropping intensity, grazing intensity) were compared at case area, national and EU level. This showed that the case areas in general were representative of the national situation.

Land use changes 

One third of all land owners had been engaged in a variety of landscape activities between 2002 and 2012. Around 20%had engaged inextensification of land use (afforestation, change from crop land to permanent grassland or perennial crops, establishment of landscape elements) while 6% had engaged in intensification (cultivation of nature areas, removal of landscape elements). More full-time farmers had engaged in intensification than other land owners. However, they were consistently responsible for the largest area affected by all types of landscape activities, including those leading to extensification and creation of new landscape elements. Information from the Roskilde case area suggests that the desire to improve the qualities of the property appears to be the most important motive. These considerations cover concerns to improve the nature content on the property (eg. recreational hunting), amenity or environmental values (eg. reduced nitrate leaching).

Use of schemes under the EU development program

About 40% of the land owners who had extensified land use had received EU subsidies and many stated that scheme participation was primarily economically motivated. Some land owners stated that the amounts earned are so small that they are not a fundamental driver.

Agricultural production and diversification

Around 30% of the respondents were full-time farmers (depending on typology). 20% of all properties had diversified income activities, from direct marketing of farm produce to agrotourism, horse-riding stables and renting out of buildings as storage or production space.

Intensification and extensification of agricultural production

The general trend is that production intensity remained unchanged between 2002 and 2012. Apart from this, more land owners reported increase than decrease in crop yield and proportion of cultivated area. In contrast, more land owners reported a decrease than increase in livestock stocking rate and use of agro-chemicals. The latter was strongly seen in Roskilde and Heerde, which have a long history of national environmental policies on the use of agro-chemicals. The increase in agro-chemicals was only found in Romania and reflects the “catching up” of Romanian farmers.

Policy implications

The findings underline the necessity to develop flexible policy measures which can be adapted to a variety of contexts. Land owners with part-time involvement in agriculture do not respond to policy signals and incentives in the same way as traditional full-time farmers. EU policy and rural development programs need to reflect the decreasing importance of traditional agriculture in many regions of Europe. Some land owners stated the lack of information about Agri-environmental schemes as a reason for non-participation, indicating the need for other information channels.

Deliverable D1.4 Synthesis report - Upscaling results and cross-region comparisons

 
D11.1 Report documenting the assessment results for the scenarios stored in the database
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Deliverable D11.1 Report documenting the assessment results for the scenarios stored in the database is now available.

Eleven land-use relevant VOLANTE policy scenarios (VPS) have been developedand detailed descriptions of the VPS are given in this report. These policy scenarios reflect (i) the perspective of stakeholders in the Vision workshops regarding important policy areas and questions for land use change in Europe, (ii) the ability of the various top-down models in VOLANTE to implement and analyse relevant policy instruments in an appropriate way. The list covers major policy priorities and current EU-level policy discussions.

In order to limit the total number of scenarios to be run with the top-down models, the eleven VPS were analysed based on two marker scenario settings, A2 and B2.The focus was on the most relevant and appropriate models for each VPS (Table below).

Furthermore, the eleven VPS have been grouped into 3 thematic policy clusters, for further use in linking the model results for the VPS more precisely to the pathway and trade-off analyses as well as the road-mapping:

A. Improve ecosystem services/environmental quality;
B. Improve farm income and the rural economy in Europe;
C. Climate change mitigation

 The report describes the model results for the eleven VPS along the modelling chain, as described in D7.3.  

Links betweenVOLANTE Policy Scenarios VPS and top-down models (describing which models have been applied to which VPS, indicated by grey-shaded cells)

REMIND/ MAgPIE

LEITAP/ MAGNET

CAPRI

EFI-GTM

EFI-SCEN

JRC-urban

Dyna-CLUE

VPS1: Nature protection

VPS2: Nitrogen/ water quality  policies

VPS3: Agricultural productivity increase

VPS4: Bio-based economy and bioenergy

VPS5: PES: Payment for carbon sequestration

VPS6: PES: Payment for recreational services

VPS7: CAP reform for rural employment

VPS8: Zoning for compact cities

VPS9: Climate change impacts/ flood protection

VPS10: Climate change mitigation/ agricultural emission taxes

VPS11: Increased trade barriers for higher EU self-sufficiency

 

Deliverable D11.1 Report documenting the assessment results for the scenarios stored in the database

 
D7.3 Description of the translation of sector specific land cover and land management information
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Deliverable D7.3 Description of the translation of sector specific land cover and land management information is now available.

This deliverable describes results for 4 marker scenarios from the full modelling chain in the top-down analysis in WP7. This translates global scenarios on socio-economic changes into specific land use changes and related impacts at the level of EU-27, individual member countries as well as sub-national levels.

The objectives of WP7 are to enable integrative land system change assessment by integrating land use models across different sectors and spatial scales (from global to sub-national); to integrate impacts of policy parameters such as taxes, land use regulations and international trade policies on land system change; to understand and explore the interactions between land-use relevant sectors; and to integrate land management information in spatial land allocation models for Europe.

There have been minor updates to the data flow in the top-down modeling chain, as described in D5.1. Based on a number of general assumptions, according to the storylines of 4 modified SRES marker scenarios, the modeling chain starts with the combined ReMIND/MAgPIE models. They use exogenous inputs on population growth as well as assumptions on international trade (liberalized vs. regulated), food demand patterns (high vs. low meat consumption), land use regulation (strong vs. weak forest protection in tropical areas), and bioenergy demand (depending on climate mitigation targets). The ReMIND model then generates GDP growth rates for 10 world regions, which takes feedbacks from land-use constraints in the MAgPIE model into account.

Population numbers, GDP growth rates, dietary patterns, and required areas for second-generation bioenergy crops have been delivered to the LEITAP/MAGNET model and to the EFI-GTM model. Changes in urban areas have been provided by JRC. These are used as an input by LEITAP/MAGNET, which then calculates changes in worldwide land use, changes in agricultural production and consumption, changes in bilateral trade flows by sub-sector and region, and changes in agricultural prices for key commodities. With regard to changes in agricultural productivity, LEITAP/MAGNET makes assumptions on exogenous yield trends, which are combined with endogenous processes of factor substitution.

Based on changes in GDP and population, the EFI-GTM model provides future trends in forest production by sub-sector, forest product trade by sub-sector, and forest product prices.

Outputs from JRC, LEITAP/MAGNET and EFI-GTM are fed into European-scale models CAPRI, EFISCEN, and Dyna-CLUE. These three models interact with each other and generate a range of land-use relevant results on the sub-national scale for the whole EU-27.

Deliverable D7.3 Description of the translation of sector specific land cover and land management information

 
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