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This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 265104
  
 
 

 



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The VOLANTE scenarios: framework, storylines and drivers
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Deliverable D.9.1 The VOLANTE scenarios: framework, storylines and drivers is now available. This report sets out to interpret and refine SRES scenario storylines for land use change at the European scale. This process involved stakeholder comments from a workshop organised on 17th - 18th November, in Mechelen, Belgium as well as further Volante scenarios team discussion. As well as provide a qualitative description of the Volante storylines (4 markers, each with two additional deviations), a brief introduction and review of scenario development as well a discussion of the pertinent drivers if change is included. One of the main aims of the SRES refinement was to ensure that the new storylines are suitable to help feed into the Module Assessment Work Package. It will also help as an additional reference pint for the Visions and Road-mapping Work Packages.

D.9.1 The VOLANTE scenarios: framework, storylines and drivers

 
EEA is interested in the VOLANTE Canvas tool and crowdsourcing
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EEA_is_interested_in_the_VOLANTE_Canvas_tool_and_crowdsourcing_web

Last June Anita Pirc-Velkavrh participated as stakeholder in the VOLANTE visions workshop on Nature Conservation and Recreation. She was enthusiastic about the canvas tool developed by Alterra and UEdin which supports vision building through visual means.  EEA wanted to further explore the interest and potential uses for Strategic Futures work in the European Environment Agency (EEA) and with the EIONET. Therefore she and Teresa Ribeiro (Head of Strategic Futures) visited Alterra on the 26-27 August 2012.

The EEA is often involved in developing foresights as part of Integrated Environmental Assessments, as well as in the identification of global mega trends. This novel tool helping to elicit visions from stakeholders could help to obtain information in a different way than in the traditional methods, and it is particularly relevant when language can be a barrier in communicating complex information – as it can be the case in of the EEA multinational workshops.  The EEA is also in the process of creating a knowledge platform for forward-looking information and services (FLIS) and would like to share available tools with its EIONET network (European environment information and observation network), which is a partnership network of the EEA and the countries .  After a live demonstration and ‘proofing’ of the tool by the EEA visitors, and following the discussion, it was agreed that:
1.    Alterra and UEdin will present the Canvas tool and crowdsourcing in several other meetings, including a Workshop on the Common Transport Vision for the Danube Region in Belgrade in September, and the annual EIONET workshop of National Reference centres for forward-looking information and scenarios in Stockholm in October. Possibly, similar contribution will be provided in the workshops on environment and security taking place mostly in 2013.
2.    The information about the  models and tools developed in VOLANTE are to be uploaded in the EEA model inventory which is part of the of the platform for developing knowledge base for FLIS .
3.    Further discussion will take place at the EEA on the 2nd of October within the planned visit of VOLANTE.

 
Summer school - application deadline extended to July 31st, 2012
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The Summer School Course on "Landscape in a Changing World" will take place in Lesvos from 19th to 28th of September 2012. This international, interdisciplinary course, intended for Master's and Ph.D. students and graduates, will delve into all current landscape-related matters concerning contemporary societies (landscape services of various sorts; state-of-the-art landscape theory; landscape mapping and the use of GIS and other tools in creating, analyzing and interpreting landscape databases; landscape planning, policy and management in times of economic/ environmental crisis; public participation in landscape governance and decision-making, etc). It will be held at the premises of the University of the Aegean on the beautiful Greek island of Lesvos.

Please see https://landscape2012.pns.aegean.gr

The application deadline has been extended to July 31st, 2012

 
Integration of bottom-up and top-down assessment methods
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Deliverable D5.2. is now available. This deliverable provides insight into the progress of the VOLANTE project, focused on: 1) The different approaches to modeling used in the VOLANTE project, 2) The challenge of reconciling the strengths of both approaches, focused on the role of decision making in global/continental scale land change models, 3) Alternative options for multi-scale representation of landscape features important to land use dynamics in land change models, and 4) A proposed approach for integrating outputs of both model approaches applied in VOLANTE in a consistent manner.

D5.2. Integration of bottom-up and top-down assessment methods

 
New publication
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Civantos E., Thuiller W., Maiorano L., Guisan A., Araujo M.B., 2012. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in Europe: the Case of Pest Control by Vertebrates. BioScience Vol. 62 No. 7: 658–666. ISSN 0006-3568, electronic ISSN 1525-3244.

Abstract

Global environmental changes threaten ecosystems and cause significant alterations to the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. We provide an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the European diversity of vertebrates and their associated pest-control services. We modeled the distributions of the species that provide these services using forecasts from bioclimatic envelope models and then used the results to generate maps of potential species richness among vertebrate providers of pest-control services. We assessed how the potential richness of pest-control providers would change according to different climate and greenhouse emissions scenarios. We found that the potential richness of pest-control providers was likely to face substantial reductions, especially in southern European countries whose economies were highly dependent on agricultural yields. In much of central and northern Europe, where countries’ economies were less dependent on agriculture, climate change was likely to benefit pest-control providers.

 
Summer school
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The Summer School Course on "Landscape in a Changing World" will take place in Lesvos from 19th to 28th of September 2012.

Please see https://landscape2012.pns.aegean.gr

Deadline for applications - 15th July 2012

 
New publication
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Karen C. Seto, Anette Reenberg, Christopher G. Boone, Michail Fragkias, Dagmar Haase, Tobias Langanke, Peter Marcotullio, Darla K. Munroe, Branislav Olah, and David Simon. Urban land teleconnections and sustainability. PNAS 2012 : 1117622109v1-201117622.

Abstract

This paper introduces urban land teleconnections as a conceptual framework that explicitly links land changes to underlying urbanization dynamics. We illustrate how three key themes that are currently addressed separately in the urban sustainability and land change literatures can lead to incorrect conclusions and misleading results when they are not examined jointly: the traditional system of land classification that is based on discrete categories and reinforces the false idea of a rural–urban dichotomy; the spatial quantification of land change that is based on place-based relationships, ignoring the connections between distant places, especially between urban functions and rural land uses; and the implicit assumptions about path dependency and sequential land changes that underlie current conceptualizations of land transitions. We then examine several environmental “grand challenges” and discuss how urban land teleconnections could help research communities frame scientific inquiries. Finally, we point to existing analytical approaches that can be used to advance development and application of the concept.

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/04/30/1117622109

 
New publication
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Pierre Gos & Sandra Lavorel (2012): Stakeholders' expectations on ecosystem services affect the assessment of ecosystem services hotspots and their congruence with biodiversity, International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21513732.2011.646303

 

Abstract

The congruence of ecosystem services (ESs) and the congruence of ES ‘hotspots’ and ‘hotspots’ of biodiversity are receiving growing interest. The thresholds used in such analyses to assess the ES presence vary widely but their effects have not been questioned.We provide an analysis of the effect of the choice of these thresholds on the overlap among ESs and the distribution of hotspots. Focusing on grasslands from the Central French Alps, we first systematically varied thresholds for three ESs (agronomic, regulation and aesthetic values), then considered triplets of thresholds representing three contrasted stakeholder perspectives on the importance of each of these services. Overlap between ESs depended strongly on thresholds. The extent of ES hotspots and their overlap with biodiversity hotspots varied widely across perspectives. Coldspots never overlapped with areas of interest for biodiversity, whatever be the perspective. Overlap was less informative than the diagnostic test of the capacity of individual ESs to capture each other’s distribution. Agronomic value poorly captured other ESs. Biodiversity was well captured by regulation and aesthetic values, but poorly captured by service hotspots. This analysis emphasizes the importance of accounting for varying stakeholders’ expectations in ES hotspot assessments.

 
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