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This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 265104
  
 
 

 



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D12.2 Science-based trade-off and synergy evaluation of hotspots and problem spots in future ESS supply
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Deliverable D12.2 Science-based trade-off and synergy evaluation of hotspots and problem spots in future ESS supply is now available. This report (D12.2) present the scientific assessment of synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services under the VOLANTE scenarios and policy alternatives using model outputs from WP7 and WP11. Ecosystem services were calculated using the models presented in Deliverable D 8.1 and their changes assessed as compared to the 2010 baseline values presented in D 8.2. Synergies and trade-offs were assessed using the so-called ‘scientific’ methods developed in deliverables 8.2, 8.3 and 12.1, aiming to identify hotspots in individual services and repeatable associations among ecosystem services, known as ecosystem service bundles.

VOLANTE D12.2 Science-based trade-off and synergy evaluation of hotspots and problem spots in future ESS supply

 
New publication - Landscape change in Mediterranean farmlands: impacts of land abandonment on cultivation terraces in Portofino (Italy) and Lesvos (Greece)
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The Mediterranean landscape has been rapidly changing over the past decades. Many regions saw a population decline, which resulted in changing land use, abandonment of marginal lands and colonisation by shrubs and tree species. Typical features like farming terraces, olive yards, and upland grasslands have been decreasing over the past 50 years. This results in a declining biodiversity and loss of traditional Mediterranean landscapes. In this paper we assess the landscape changes that took place in two areas, in Portofino, on the Italian Riviera, and Lesvos, a Greek island near the Turkish coast. We compared land use maps and aerial photographs over the past decades to quantify the land use changes in these two areas. Additional information was acquired from farmers’ interviews and literature. We found that changes are related to societal changes in the appraisal of agricultural land uses, and to the urban expansion, tourism and recreation. These diffuse processes are a result of policy measures and autonomous societal transformations. This is confirmed by the results of two interview surveys: between 1999 and 2012 agricultural land use in Portofino regional Park and buffer zone further marginalised, and the associated landscape changes are perceived as a substantial loss of character and identity. This problem is emblematic for large parts of the Mediterranean. Comparing different landscapes reveal similar processes of landscape change, which can be related to similar driving forces. Based on such comparisons, we learn about possible trajectories of change, and ask for a comprehensive approach to land use management.

Van der Sluis, T., Kizos, T., Pedroli, B., (2014): Landscape change in Mediterranean farmlands: impacts of land abandonment on cultivation terraces in Portofino (Italy) and Lesvos (Greece). Journal of Landscape Ecology 7(1): 23-44.

 
New publication - An interdisciplinary methodological guide for quantifying associations between ecosystem services
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Considering the increasing uptake of the concept of “ecosystem services” in landscape management and environmental policies, it is urgent to establish a consensual framework to assess the complex relationships among ecosystem services, considering both the supply- and the demand-sides. A diversity of approaches have been proposed to evaluate ecosystem services associations, but not all methods are equivalent and methodological choices need to be made depending on the scientific and policy questions at hand, as well as the type of data available.

Based on previous classifications of ecosystem service associations, we propose to characterize three broad types of associations considering the ecological (supply side) and socio-economical (demand side) aspects of ecosystem services: supply–supply, supply–demand and demand–demand. We then review quantitative methods available and propose guidelines to assess those three categories of relationships among ecosystem services and identify their explanatory variables following three steps: (i) detecting ecosystem services associations, (ii) defining bundles and (iii) identifying the explanatory variables of ecosystem services associations. For each step, strengths and weaknesses of different statistical analysis and machine learning methods are described.

The proposed interdisciplinary methodological approach takes one step toward embracing such complexity of socio-ecological systems as it considers ecosystem services delivery (supply–supply), stakeholders’ needs (demand–demand), and on how stakeholders can benefit from the ecosystem services delivery (supply–demand). We illustrate how such a diverse spectrum of methods may apply for land management.

Maud A. Mouchet, Pénélope Lamarque, Berta Martín-López, Emilie Crouzat, Pierre Gos, Coline Byczek, Sandra Lavorel, An interdisciplinary methodological guide for quantifying associations between ecosystem services, Global Environmental Change, Volume 28, September 2014, Pages 298-308, ISSN 0959-3780, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.012.

 
D4.5 Report on comparative analysis
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Deliverable D4.5 Report on comparative analysis is now available. In this deliverable (D4.5) was applied a decomposition approach to the HANPP framework to scrutinize the role of drivers of change in the course of the last century. Such an analysis allows to depict underlying processes of the different major changes in land systems in Europe and provides the basis to furthering our understanding of the nature and conditions of land system change.

VOLANTE D4.5 Report on comparative analysis

 
How would you like to live in 2040?
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Take part in the www.life2040.eu campaign to learn about Europeans want to live in 2040! The results will support the EU funded research project VOLANTE to better understand demands on European land use.

 
D11.2 Interpretation of scenario results in terms of described and mapped land change trajectories and archetypes
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Deliverable D11.2 Interpretation of scenario results in terms of described and mapped land change trajectories and archetypes is now available. This deliverable (D11.2) documents three analyses carried out to interpret the scenario outcomes in light of the insights gained from studying recent and longterm land use change (module PROCESSES): (1) a delineation and mapping of high-level, typical land change trajectories; (2) an assessment of future developments of current land change archetypes; and (3) an interpretation of future land change in light of long-term land system trajectories.

VOLANTE D11.2 Interpretation of scenario results in terms of described and mapped land change trajectories and archetypes

 
VOLANTE Trade-off workshop
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On 5-6 May 2014 the VOLANTE team gathered 19 of its stakeholders in Vienna for the Trade-off Workshop. The workshop was organised in order to give the stakeholders the opportunity to review the pathways towards the consolidated visions and their trade-offs. Additionally, they were asked to assess trade-offs and identify options for mitigating these trade-offs. In a final exercise the stakeholders identified land use policies linked to the consolidated visions.

The presentations given at the meeting can be downloaded here.

    The contribution of Trade-off Assessment to Roadmapping for Land Use Management

    Trade‐offs in future European land use

    The VOLANTE scenario and pathway analysis framework

    VOLANTE Identifying Pathways

    VOLANTE pathways and trade-offs_intro

    VOLANTE pathways breakout_vision-a

    VOLANTE pathways breakout_vision-b

    VOLANTE pathways breakout_vision-c

As soon as the workshop report has been prepared, it will also be freely available.

 
Stakeholder Consultation Meeting
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On 2-3 December 2013 the VOLANTE Consolidated Visions Workshop was held in Brussels followed by a short Preview and Feedback Meeting.

The objectives of  the meeting was to give our stakeholders the opportunity to provide feedback on the development of the consolidated visions, the planned modelling, pathway and trade-off analyses designed to identify the way towards the future visions. The presentations of this meeting are freely available and can be downloaded here:

1. Visions analyses

2. Consolidated Visions

3. Road mapping

4. Pathways and trade-off analyses

5. Next steps

The report of the meeting can be found here

European stakeholder workshop & preview and feedback meeting
 
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